贝博足彩

报告人： 王玮明，教授，淮阴师范学院

报告时间：2025年4月2日下午3：00-4：30

报告地点：数学学院216会议室

报告题目：A fractional order SIRS model by the way of generalized continuous time random walk

报告摘要：In this talk, we propose a novel fractional-order SIRS (frSIRS) model incorporating infection forces under intervention strategies, developed through the framework of generalized continuous-time random walks. The model is first transformed into a system of Volterra integral equations to identify the disease-free equilibrium (DFE) state and the endemic equilibrium (EE) state. Additionally, we introduce a new FV-1 method for calculating the basic reproduction number R0. Next, we establish that R0 serves as a critical threshold governing the model's dynamics: if  R0, the unique DFE is globally asymptotically stable; while if R0>1, the unique EE is globally asymptotically stable. Furthermore, we apply our findings to two fractional- order SIRS (frSIRS) models incorporating infection forces under various intervention strategies, thereby substantiating our results. From an epidemiological perspective, our analysis reveals several key insights for controlling disease spread: (i) when the death rate is high, it is essential to increase the memory index; (ii) when the recovery rate is high, decreasing the memory index is advisable; and (iii) enhancing psychological or inhibitory effects--factors independent of the death rate, recovery rate, or memory index--can also play a critical role in mitigating disease transmission. These findings offer valuable insights into how the memory index influences disease outbreaks and the overall severity of epidemics.

个人简介：王玮明博士，淮阴师范学院“翔宇学者”，二级教授；贝博足彩数学会生物数学专委会常务理事、副秘书长。陕西师范贝博足彩兼职博导。江苏省十四五“数学”重点学科带头人；江苏省高校科技创新团队带头人；淮安市传染病防控及预警重点实验室主任。曾入选浙江省“新世纪 151 人才工程”第二层次，担任浙江省十二五“应用数学”重点学科带头人。近十年来专注于传染病防控的建模分析及预警研究，得到了国家自然科学基金的连续资助，已主持完成面上项目2项，目前主持在研1项。在科学出版社出版专著2部。近五年来，获贝博足彩产学研合作与创新成果奖优秀奖、海南省自然科学奖二等奖和新疆自治区科技进步奖二等奖各1项。入选爱思唯尔2020--2024“贝博足彩高被引学者”、科睿唯安2021-2022 “全球高被引科学家”以及斯坦福贝博足彩“全球前2%科学家”等榜单。